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We are in the midst of a fierce war on Lebanon; a war that is so devastating on all levels to a country already weakened by the worst economic crisis in its recent history. This war is deadliest that the previous one of 2006. The death tolls keep increasing day after day and civilians are being bombed left and right. The destruction level is as well by far bigger than 2006 war. I keep comparing to 2006 war as it is the last comparable in a country that keeps on being crippled by war and disasters every decade or so. But how is the on-going war affecting the real Estate sector in Lebanon? And what is the outlook on a post-war scenario?

Real Estate in Lebanon in the midst of war

The real estate sector has suffered a lot from the economic crisis that hit Lebanon in late 2019 and has still not yet recovered back to the prices of pre-crisis phase. The prospect of war has crippled sale transactions in the first 9 months of 2024 – as the fear of a war was always a braking factor for possible investors in real estate. Now the worst fear has materialized indeed; we are in full scale war with Israel bombarding continuously in Beirut southern suburb as well as South and Bekaa areas mainly. Three hits were so far carried on Central Beirut – i.e. outside the southern suburbs of Beirut and the deadliest was just yesterday in Ras Nabeh area. Times are dark; death is everywhere and people are fleeing for safer zones leaving their homes behind.

The Rent Market

On the Rent market, this has led to a huge demand on rent in “safer” areas of the country. It is very difficult to find a vacant apartment at the moment not rented in those “safer” areas from Beirut up to north passing by Baabda, Metn and Kesrouane. We estimate that the strong rent market will maintain even in an after-war scenario given that many of the houses in danger zones were demolished completely and even if this is not the case, the danger zones in Lebanon may need a longer time to be fit again for habilitation once war is over.

The Sale Market

On the Sale market, sellers are already preparing for an era of post-war whereby the worst will be behind us. Sellers are betting that if their properties survive indeed the current war (and it does not escalate to an even bigger war where safer areas are no longer really safer) – sellers are betting on higher prices in the post-war situation. Lebanese Eurobond prices went up by 35% on international markets over the past two weeks, from 6.5 cents on September 27 to 8.875 cents today! International investors are seeing a glimpse of change in the domestic politico-economic landscape in the medium term, beyond imminent short-term challenges. Word is that Goldman Sachs is buying Lebanese Eurobonds and HSBC issued a report entitled “ Moment of Change”. The fact that Lebanon has witnessed too many wars over and over again, the public is well aware of the post-war economic boost and expecting it. On the real estate side, it will take a bit of time for developers to decide on new projects, let alone put the motions into making those projects a reality. This will mean that the prices of the current stock on properties for sale in Lebanon will increase or this is the reasoning of many sellers on the Lebanese market. I remember a phase whereby we used to update prices in “Lollars” almost monthly or even bi-weekly when real estate was still sold by using local dollars trapped in Lebanese banking sector; I see us updating prices of current stock on Lebanese real estate market in real dollars in 2025.

This war seems fiercer and longer than any of us can bear; We are unable to stop this monster machine targeting civilians in many parts of our country; We fear for our safety and the safety of our loved ones on a daily basis; Lebanese are simply left alone facing a war machine targeted at their heads; some say this war won’t stop before the American elections due in November of 2024; others estimate it will continue through the early start of 2025 even. Hospitals are suffering; Education is crippled and Lebanese economy at the moment is at its last breath;

And yet, are we allowed even to hope that after the darkness, light can emerge again and maybe Lebanese will have finally the chance to catch their breath?!